انفجار قیمتی در هزینه‌های تولید/ سال ۱۴۰۲ بازار خودرو از تورم جلو خواهد زد؟

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انفجار قیمتی در هزینه‌های تولید/ سال ۱۴۰۲ بازار خودرو از تورم جلو خواهد زد؟

امیرحسین کاکایی بر این عقیده‌است که در سال آینده با رشد ۶.۵ برابری هزینه‌های تولید خودرو مواجه خواهیم شد، سالی که باید دعا کنیم تا بازار خودرو از تورم جلو نیافتد.

خبرآنلاین-  سال ۱۴۰۱ را می‌توان یکی از پرنوسان‌ترین سال‌ها برای بازار خودرو توصیف کرد، سالی که در آن قیمت خودرو پژو ۲۰۷ با گذر از یک میلیارد تومان، تیتر یک اخبار را به خود اختصاص داد. صنعت خودرو در ایران برای دهه‌ها با فراز و نشیب‌های متعددی دست و پنجه نرم کرده و با تولید خودروهای قدیمی در بازارهای جهانی ( پراید ) خبرساز شده‌است.

چالش‌های صنعت خودرو در سالی که گذشت نیز ادامه یافت و حتی رویدادهایی را تجربه کرد که در سال‌های گذشته بی‌سابقه بوده‌است، مانند مصوبه شورای رقابت مبنی بر انحصاری خواندن بازار تمام خودروها در کشور و شوک بی‌سابقه قیمتی به بازار خودرو، اما این بازار با وجود تداوم تورم بالا در سال ۱۴۰۲، به گفته کارشناسان اقتصادی، و وعده‌های عظیم تولید، در سال جاری به کدام سو خواهد رفت؟

سال عجیب و غریب برای بازار و صنعت خودرو
امیرحسین کاکایی، استاد دانشگاه علم و صنعت و کارشناس صنعت خودرو، در گفت و گو با خبرنگار خبرآنلاین و با اشاره به اینکه سال آینده برای بازار و صنعت خودرو بسیار عجیب و غریب خواهد بود؛ گفت:« در پیش فروشی که برای خودروهای داخلی در اواخر سال گذشته صورت گرفت نزدیک به ۹۰۰ هزار نفر شرکت کردند و به طور تقریبی تمام تولید سال آینده پیش‌فروش شد، به این معنا که در سال آینده دست دولت برای عرضه بیشتر و اضافه خودرو خالی است و در صورتی که بازار هیجانی شود، دولت نخواهد توانست هیچ اقدامی کند و از طرفی ۵۰ درصد تولید داخل نیز به طرح جوانی جمعیت تخصیص پیدا کرده‌است و در نهایت هیچی در دست دولت نخواهد ماند.»

انفجار قیمتی در هزینه‌های تولید خودرو
این کارشناس خودرو در خصوص روند قیمت‌ها در بازار خودرو برای سال آینده گفت:« به طور حداقل قیمت تمام شده خودرو در سال آینده ۴۰ تا ۵۰ درصد افزایش خواهد یافت، چراکه هزینه انرژی و حداقل دستمزد کارگر برای سال آینده بالا خواهد رفت و به طور حداقل هزینه‌های تولید در سال آینده ۶.۵ برابر خواهد شد و ما شاهد یک انفجار قیمتی در هزینه تمام شده خواهیم بود. از طرفی کمبود آب و گاز که سال آینده نیز ادامه پیدا خواهد کرد، تولید را با چالش‌هایی مواجه خواهد کرد.»

کاکایی در ادامه با اشاره به اینکه دولت روی تولید یک میلیون و ۸۰۰ هزار دستگاه خودرو برای سال آینده حساب باز کرده‌است، گفت:« به همین دلیل حجم پیش‌فروش انقدر بالا رفته‌است، اما تولید یک میلیون و ۸۰۰ هزار دستگاه یک چالش بسیار بزرگ است. در زمانی که تحریم‌ها نبود و ارتباط ما با دنیا بر سر جایش بود، ما توانستیم تنها یک میلیون و ۶۵۰ هزار دستگاه خودرو در یک سال تولید کنیم.»

قیمت شمسیر دو لبه‌است!
این استاد دانشگاه در ادامه با اشاره به تداوم قیمت‌گذاری دستوری در سال آینده، گفت:« تداوم قیمت‌گذاری دستوری در سال آینده و آیا اینکه این امر برای دو خودروساز بزرگ کشور چالش‌برانگیز خواهد بود یا خیر، به این موضوع باز می‌گردد که این افزایش قیمت‌ها چقدر خواهد بود. قیمت شمشیر دو لبه‌ای است که اگر آن را بالا برند، زیان خودروسازان تعمیق می‌شود و اگر آن را بالا ببرند بر روی بازار تاثیر خواهند گذاشت و در سال آینده ما با چالش های عجیب و غریب و یک بازار خطرناک مواجه خواهیم بود.»

دولت برای افزایش درآمدهای ارزی از چین برنامه دارد؟
این کارشناس صنعت خودرو در ادامه گفت:« شاید همان‌طور که خبر از سرگیری روابط با عربستان سعودی ناگهانی مطرح شد، دولتمردان با چین برنامه‌هایی برای افزایش درآمد ارزی دارند، چراکه این حجم از تولید با توجه به محدودیت در قطعات و مواد اولیه اصلا امکان پذیر نخواهد بود، مگر اینکه واردات گسترده مواد اولیه داشته باشی و از طرف دیگر با ارتقا استاندارد تولید، تقاضا برای قطعات الکترونیک نیز افزایش خواهد یافت، قطعاتی که تولید آن‌ها در دنیا نیز با مشکل مواجه شده‌است.»

بازار خودرو از تورم جلو خواهد زد؟
او در ادامه در پاسخ به این پرسش که در سال آینده بازار خودرو همسو با تورم حرکت خواهد کرد و یا جلو خواهد افتاد، گفت:« به طور قطع بازار خودرو تورم را تجربه خواهد کرد و باید دعا کنیم که از تورم جلو نیافتد؛ کافی است که در سال آینده یک تنش کوتاه ایجاد شود و از آنجا که دست دولت خالی است، تبعات سنگینی برای بازار خودرو خواهد داشت و از آنجا که با تنش ایجاد شده، به عنوان مثال خروج سرمایه‌گذاران از بورس و ورود به بازار خودرو، تقاضا برای خودرو بالا خواهد رفت و از طرفی دست دولت خالی است، قیمت‌ها به صورت جهشی بالا خواهد رفت.»

دولت چگونه می‌تواند به مردم امید دهد؟
این استاد دانشگاه در ادامه با اشاره به اینکه دولت باید از تجربه سال ۱۴۰۱ درس می‌گرفت تا وعده اضافه نمی‌داد، گفت:« در سالی که گذشت تولید خودرو ۲۰ تا ۲۵ درصد رشد پیدا کرد، اما دولت برای سال آینده وعده تولید یک میلیون و ۸۰۰ هزار دستگاه خودرو را داد و در صورتی که این وعده محقق نشود، مردم ناامید خواهند شد و نیازی به این کار نبود تا به ناامیدی دامن زده شود. از طرفی پیش فروش‌هایی که در اواخر سال گذشته صورت گرفت فاجعه‌هایی بود که دولت از آن عبرت نگرفت و باید جلوی وزارت صمت برای وعده‌دهی گرفته شود، چراکه فکر می‌کند با وعده دادن مشکل بازار حل خواهد شد اما در واقعیت به انتظارات دامن خواهد زد.»

کاکایی در آخر گفت:« از طرفی وزارت صمت به جای اینکه دم از رفع مشکلات واردات بزند باید از چگونگی رفع مشکلات تولید سخن بگوید، قرار بود خصوصی‌سازی صورت گیرد تا بهره‌وری بالا برود اما در سال ۱۴۰۱ کاملا به طور عکس رفتار کرد و وزارت صمت در حال عمل کردن به صورت ضد نظام رقابتی و خصوصی‌سازی است و حتی واردات که قرار بود ابزار توسعه باشد، ابزار دست دولت شده‌است تا آن را به صورت انحصاری به فروش برساند.»

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